By outdoor-nature-child.com As Hurricane Milton looms on the horizon, residents of Davis Islands in Tampa, Florida, are taking action to prepare for the impending storm. Many have affixed signs to their doors reading, “God help us.” On October 7, Hurricane Milton intensified into a Category 5 storm as it advanced towards the Gulf Coast of West Florida. The National Hurricane Center has issued warnings that Tampa Bay and its surrounding waters may face dangerously high storm surges and heavy rainfall, pushing local crisis levels to the limit. This situation is exacerbated by the region’s geographical features and the fact that it hasn’t faced a major hurricane in over a century, alongside rising sea levels associated with climate change.
According to reports from the Associated Press, storm surge heights around Tampa Bay are expected to reach between 8 to 12 feet, with rainfall totals predicted between 4 to 6 inches. Just last month, Hurricane Helene struck about 150 miles from Tampa in the Florida Panhandle, resulting in storm surges that surpassed normal tidal levels by 5 to 8 feet, leading to flooding fatalities in the Tampa area.
The Gulf Coast of Florida is characterized by a shallow continental shelf, where the elevated seabed acts as a barrier, trapping water from storm surges and pushing seawater inland. This is in stark contrast to Florida’s East Coast, where the seabed drops sharply just a few miles off the shore. Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, explains that while hurricanes impacting both coasts can have comparable scales and intensities, the resulting storm surges can differ significantly.
Although West Florida residents are generally accustomed to storms, a major hurricane has not made a direct hit on Tampa in over a century. During this time, the population has surged, particularly as tens of thousands relocated to the area during the COVID-19 pandemic, many choosing to reside on the barrier islands between Clearwater and St. Petersburg. Long-time residents have grown skeptical of false alarms, often feeling no immediate urgency for caution.
Climate change adds another layer of complexity to this scenario. Rising temperatures linked to greenhouse gases, warmer oceans, increased sea levels, and greater atmospheric moisture all significantly influence hurricane strength and flood risk.
Angela Colbert, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, highlighted in a 2022 report that global warming is expected to result in future hurricanes producing more intense rainfall. Rising sea levels are set to lead to higher storm surges and increased coastal flooding.
The National Hurricane Center’s declaration of Milton as a Category 5 hurricane on October 7 was partly due to a significant surge in sustained wind speeds to 75 miles per hour over the previous 24 hours, a change primarily fueled by exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures, providing the hurricane with more energy.