BOTCHED 5G SERVICES  AND THE WI-FI GAMBLE

SONNY ARAGBA-AKPORE discusses the elusive nature of fifth-generation technology and services in Nigeria.

Three years ago, Isa Pantami, the former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, made a bold statement about the transformative potential of 5G technology in Nigeria’s telecommunications sector. His remarks came right before the much-anticipated 5G auction, a moment that was filled with optimism and high expectations.

Following Pantami’s enthusiasm, Umar Garba Danbatta, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), passionately advocated for the auction, generating excitement among industry stakeholders. However, allegations emerged that Pantami may have misled President Muhammadu Buhari and the Federal Executive Council, claiming that 5G would usher in unprecedented internet speeds.

The first auction culminated with MTN and Mafab Communications Limited winning two lots at staggering bids of $273.6 million each. A little over a year later, Airtel Africa secured a third lot, seemingly signaling the end of the initial phase of Nigeria’s 5G rollout. Yet since then, the narrative around 5G has largely fizzled; even the NCC has struggled to claim genuine success in implementing this much-hyped technology.

As it stands, 5G networks remain largely unseen across Nigeria. If they do exist, only a small segment of the population seems to benefit from them. Even those who secured licenses speak cautiously about the situation, echoing a local saying that this is akin to a “bad market.”

In contrast, other African countries are making notable strides towards 5G implementation, although not without their own hurdles. Nations like India offer valuable lessons, having developed flexible regulatory frameworks that allow licensees to stagger payments over a decade, taking into account the logistical difficulties of deploying 5G infrastructure in a vast population of over 1.4 billion.

Nigeria’s approach, however, appears to have been more focused on maximizing government revenue, resulting in lucrative commissions for consultants, while both license holders and consumers have yet to see the anticipated benefits. As users remain in limbo, the NCC recently announced a new initiative on September 19, 2024, to introduce Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi 6), claiming it will greatly enhance internet speeds.

Meanwhile, Wi-Fi 6 has already seen successful rollouts in countries like the USA, South Korea, Canada, and the UK. The International Telecommunications Union has offered frameworks that the FCC has adapted with local modifications. This raises questions about Nigeria’s regulatory preparedness for managing this new technology effectively. Is Nigeria set for another wave of hype, similar to the trajectory of 5G?

During the Wi-Fi 6 launch, attendees expressed skepticism, recalling the earlier 5G auction, which was filled with fanfare reminiscent of a marketplace. In that auction, three companies entered with bids starting at $199.37 million, surpassing the NCC’s reserve price of $197.4 million (75 billion naira). After 11 rounds of competitive bidding, MTN Nigeria Communications Plc and Mafab Communications Limited emerged victorious, each paying $273.6 million for their respective lots.

Additionally, MTN was required to pay an extra $15.9 million for the preferred Lot One (3500-3600 MHz), while Mafab secured Lot Two (3700-3800 MHz) without additional fees, although they still had to obtain a Unified Access Service License, which came with an estimated cost of around $905,000.

As discussions around 5G in Nigeria persist, they highlight both the tantalizing potential of new technologies and the substantial challenges that must be overcome to realize that potential.