By outdoor-nature-child.com China has recently conducted a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) aimed at the Pacific Ocean, with many experts suggesting it could be the Dongfeng-41 model. Lin Ying-yu, an assistant professor at Tamkang University’s Strategic Studies Institute, believes this missile launch serves as a display of strength directed at the United States, particularly as China seeks to showcase its military rocket capabilities ahead of the upcoming National Day celebrations on October 1. He noted that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) wants to convey that its missile deterrence capabilities remain robust, despite recent internal reforms.
The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense has been closely watching the uptick in missile exercises by the Chinese military, employing joint intelligence and reconnaissance efforts to ensure they are fully prepared for any developments.
Director of the Institute for Defense Strategies and Resources at the National Defense Security Research Institute, Su Tzu-yun, speculates that the missile tested is likely the new, long-range Dongfeng-41 ICBM. This launch is particularly noteworthy as it shifts away from previous inland testing sites, now targeting the Pacific, which sends a strong signal to the U.S. Su interprets this strategic maneuver as serving a dual purpose: to validate missile technology while also showcasing military might.
Su further explains that the PLA is eager to assert its strategic nuclear deterrence against the U.S., drawing a parallel to Russia’s demonstration of nuclear capability during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, aimed at intimidating Western nations. He suggests that China might be adopting a similar strategy to dissuade international political and military support for Taiwan.
Additionally, Su pointed out that deploying the Dongfeng-41 requires authorization from the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China. The timing of this missile test, which followed discussions between U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and military officials from both countries, seems to reflect a strategy that blends both diplomatic and military tactics.
Lin Ying-yu also mentioned that President Biden expressed a desire for dialogue with President Xi Jinping during Sullivan’s visit to China. In this light, the missile launch could be perceived as a warning sign ahead of potential discussions, with China possibly aiming to bolster its negotiating position. He highlighted that this test not only showcases China’s nuclear capabilities but also provides insights into the technological improvements of China’s BeiDou satellite system in terms of missile targeting.