On October 15, World Bank President David Malpass issued a stark warning that the escalation of the Gaza conflict could have significant repercussions for the global economy. Recently, the U.S. government sent a letter to the Israeli government urging for improvements in the humanitarian situation in Gaza, indicating that failure to do so could impact American military aid to Israel.
In an interview with Reuters, Malpass emphasized that the potential economic fallout from the Gaza conflict is heavily contingent on the extent of its spread. “If the war expands, the scenario changes dramatically,” he noted, highlighting that the conflict is beginning to encroach on areas that are critical to global economic growth. He estimated that damages from Israeli airstrikes in Gaza could be between $14 billion and $20 billion, while airstrikes in southern Lebanon would further exacerbate the region’s economic woes.
Malpass revealed that the World Bank has provided $300 million to the Palestinian authorities—six times the usual aid amount—but acknowledged that this is still a drop in the bucket compared to the vast sums that the authorities ultimately require.
According to a report from CNN, the U.S. government recently sent a letter co-signed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer. The letter urged Israel to take action within the next 30 days to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza, warning that failure to act might lead to limitations on U.S. military assistance.
The letter indicated that since the spring of this year, aid flowing to Gaza has plummeted by over 50%, with the amount in September being the lowest it has been in a year. It pointed out that Israeli government actions seem to be worsening the humanitarian crisis.
A U.S. defense official expressed hope that the letter would persuade Israeli officials to take necessary steps. In recent weeks, Israel has intensified its military operations in northern Gaza, advising local civilians to evacuate south. The United Nations World Food Programme warned over the weekend that Israel’s military actions are having a “catastrophic impact” on food security for Palestinian families.
Furthermore, sources told Reuters that the Israeli military has cleared landmines in the demilitarized zone along the Golan Heights border with Syria and is establishing new barriers, suggesting that Israel may be preparing to expand ground operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon while also bolstering its defenses.
Reports suggest that Israel may attempt its first strikes against Hezbollah from further east along the Lebanese border while establishing a secure zone to monitor Hezbollah movements and prevent infiltration.
When questioned about the mine-clearing operations, Israeli military officials declined to comment on operational plans, stating only that they are currently engaged in combat with Hezbollah to ensure the safe return of northern residents.
The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in a phone call on October 15. Netanyahu informed Macron that Israel opposes a “unilateral ceasefire,” arguing that it would not alter Lebanon’s security situation and merely revert it to its previous state. Macron asserted that Israel, as a country created under a United Nations resolution, should not ignore UN decisions, adding that Israel is currently conducting ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, an area where UN peacekeeping forces are deployed. He also previously suggested that halting arms exports to Israel might be the only way to end the conflict.