North Korea reinforcement analysis- Russia can reorganize its troops to increase the chance of success in the southward movement

On October 23rd in Rome, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that North Korea has deployed troops to Russia to participate in the ongoing war in Ukraine, marking a significant shift in Russia’s military operations. South Korean television aired footage of North Korean soldiers receiving training in Russia. According to an analysis by the New York Times, North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict will strengthen the ties between North Korea and Russia, which have been developing since the Cold War. Meanwhile, Foreign Policy magazine noted that this is the first time North Korea has intervened in a foreign conflict since the Korean War. If Russian forces can leverage North Korean special units to alter the tide of battle, it could reorganize the Russian military and increase their chances of success in combat.

Last year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin met twice, and in June of this year, they signed a mutual defense and cooperation agreement. Observers have speculated on the implications of this treaty amidst the intensifying conflict in Ukraine.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, over 600,000 Russian military personnel have reportedly lost their lives. In response, North Korea has not only provided logistical support but has also sent troops to assist Russia in its military endeavors in Ukraine.

Officials from South Korea indicated that since August of last year, North Korea has shipped over 13,000 containers containing artillery shells, anti-tank rockets, and short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. Additionally, North Korean technical personnel and officers have been dispatched to support Russian operations involving North Korean weapons and to collect data on the missile’s performance in modern warfare.

North Korea boasts an army of 1.2 million personnel, making it one of the largest military forces globally. However, it has not participated in significant conflicts since the Korean War from 1950 to 1953. For decades, North Korea has maintained that its military establishment serves a deterrent purpose, but sending troops to support Russia signifies its first foray into overseas military involvement.

In exchange for its support, North Korea is likely to receive Russia’s commitment to veto any new U.S.-led sanctions against it in the United Nations Security Council, potentially undermining existing sanctions.

South Korean officials have also reported that North Korea continues to receive oil supplies from Russia, bolstering its position against the United States and its allies.

However, it’s unclear whether Russia will assist North Korea in overcoming technical challenges associated with its nuclear and missile programs. Although North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests and launched multiple intercontinental ballistic missiles, its technology has not yet reached the required range to threaten the U.S.

Foreign Policy magazine has observed indications that Russia may utilize North Korean soldiers to counter Ukrainian incursions near Russian territory in Kursk, with possible deployments to the front lines as early as November.

The deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk carries two significant implications: politically, it aligns perfectly with the joint defense agreement between Russia and North Korea to repel armed invasions of their territories; historically, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has elevated the significance of Kursk. Should the Russian military manage to leverage North Korean special forces to change the dynamics of the battle, it could reorganize its forces and enhance its chances of a successful advance southward, potentially breaching Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk and opening pathways to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.