Georgians are currently at the polls, facing a significant decision about the future of their nation. President Salome Zourabichvili, a pro-Western leader, expressed her confidence that this vote will pave the way for a brighter future that all citizens have been longing for. Many consider this election as pivotal as the historic referendum on independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. “I voted for a new Georgia,” Zourabichvili stated as she cast her vote.
The ruling party, Georgian Dream, is anticipated to secure the most votes. However, there are four opposition groups that believe they can unite to challenge the party’s authority and revive Georgia’s aspirations to join the European Union. Public sentiment seems to lean toward pro-EU values, with reports suggesting that 80% of voters support the idea of accession. Georgia’s bid for EU membership was only granted candidacy status last December, but in a concerning twist, the application was suspended several months later due to allegations of democratic backsliding.
An estimated 3.5 million citizens are eligible to vote in this high-stakes election, framed by the opposition as a choice between aligning with Europe or falling under Russian influence. The government, however, presents the dilemma as a matter of peace versus war. The political climate has grown increasingly fraught, fueled by the influence of Bidzina Ivanishvili, the country’s wealthiest individual, who has been steering Georgian Dream towards a potential fourth term.
If Georgian Dream secures a significant majority, Ivanishvili has indicated plans to dissolve the largest opposition party, the United National Movement, citing their past governance. While opinion polls suggest that Georgian Dream is set to win around one-third of the votes, these results are met with skepticism regarding their reliability. To unseat GD, all four major opposition factions must exceed the 5% threshold to gain representation in the 150-seat parliament.
President Zourabichvili has been vocal about her support for a coalition government formed by the opposition, asserting that this election could mark the end of “one-party rule in Georgia.” After voting on Saturday, she remarked, “There will be people who are victorious, but no one will lose.”
Zourabichvili has collaborated with the opposition to forge a charter outlining that, if they succeed, a technocratic government will be established to address immediate leadership needs. This government would aim to reverse policies detrimental to Georgia’s EU trajectory and call for snap elections.
Meanwhile, opposition leader Tina Bokuchava of the United National Movement claims that all reputable polls indicate a lead for the opposition. In response, Georgian Dream has cast a shadow of fear over the election, suggesting that an opposition victory could ignite a war with Russia. This warning seems to have resonated particularly well outside the major urban centers, where party advertisements starkly contrast images of war-torn Ukraine with peaceful scenes from Georgia, branded with, “No to war! Choose peace.”
Georgian Dream argues that the opposition’s ascent might encourage Western forces to open a new front in the conflict with Russia, whereas their party promises to maintain peace with a neighbor that has historically been hostile and continues to occupy part of Georgia’s territory.
In a town northwest of Tbilisi, a 41-year-old woman shared her mixed feelings: “I don’t like Georgian Dream, but I hate the opposition National Movement – and at least we’ll be at peace.” Another local, Lali, aged 68, acknowledged that while the opposition might facilitate a closer connection to Europe, it might also bring about conflict.